Blogs For McCain

Free Republic, the right-side of the right-side of the blogosphere, is hosting an online poll asking members which Republican they’d vote for if the 2008 field narrowed to just Rudy, Romney, and McCain.  The results would be astonishing if it weren’t for the latest GOP Bloggers straw poll, which illuminates the outcome considerably. 

The choices of Freepers are as follows:

Rudy: 45%

Romney: 29%

McCain: 4%

Free Republic is an ultra-conservative site, which means these pro-life, pro-gun, religious conservatives are selecting pro-choice Rudy Giuliani over pro-life Mitt Romney by double-digits, and this is occurring prior to any indication by the mayor that he intends to change his social positions or even appoint conservative judges.  If Romney can’t beat Rudy among the most conservative Republicans now, he’ll never be able to do so.  And McCain appears to be a mere afterthought.

The reason for Romney’s dilemma is that he and Rudy have their base in the same bloc of GOP voters: those who prefer a candidate who’s fiscally conservative, well-spoken, an executive, a partisan, and a candidate a bit less regional than the current president.  As the recent GOP Bloggers straw poll showed, both Rudy and Romney have similar net acceptability ratings.  What the poll doesn’t show, but what can be inferred, is that the two candidates are being found acceptable by all the same conservatives.  Unfortunately for Mitt, it’s Rudy, and not Romney, that is the first choice of this particular bloc of GOP voters.  A Giuliani implosion may allow Romney to pick up the pieces of his campaign, but absent that, Romney will never be able to beat Giuliani in a head-to-head matchup.

We see more evidence for this theory when looking at the other candidates that Giuliani and Romney voters in the GOP Bloggers poll found acceptable.  Giuliani voters like Romney.  Romney voters like Giuliani.  And that large Newt bloc I discussed earlier doesn’t appear ready to consolidate behind Mitt should Gingrich stay out of the race.  If anything, this group finds Rudy more acceptable than Romney.  Again, Mitt just can’t win.

Mitt appears to be the one who’d benefit the most if Rudy pulled out of the race.  But Rudy’s not going anywhere.  And despite Romney’s two-year attempt to trumpet socially conservative causes to build a red-state base, it appears that Romney’s current status is the second-choice of Giuliani voters. 

Ah well, there’s always vice president.