Blogs For McCain

Smart move on Sen. McCain’s part:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has done the new calculus on the presidential contest, and the current situation requires a change of strategy. McCain skipped the Iowa caucus in 2000, and at one point, he planned to do so in 2008 as well. But now McCain plans to play in Iowa, a fact that is borne out by his hiring of Iowan Terry Nelson, a former Bush campaigner and a consultant behind the controversial ad that ran against Rep. Harold Ford (D) in the Tennessee Senate race this year.

Part of the strategy-shift is tied to the loss of Sen. George Allen (R-Va.), once a presidential hopeful. Allen’s departure works against McCain by narrowing the conservative field — McCain wants the conservative vote to be split as many ways as possible. This means that a stronger candidate to McCain’s right — at this point the most likely one is Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) — has a better chance in New Hampshire, which is coincidentally a good state for Romney geographically.

If McCain were to skip Iowa and then lose to, or narrowly defeat, Romney in New Hampshire, he would then risk being shut out through the Southern states’ presidential primaries, nearly putting him out of contention. By the time the Michigan primary rolls around, McCain’s credibility could be seriously diminished, and his home-state primary would become meaningless rather than being a momentum-building win that contributes to his image as the inevitable candidate. On the other hand, a strong showing in Iowa would give him momentum for New Hampshire that could carry over to the next set of states, including Missouri and South Carolina.

If Johnny and Rudy want to ensure that this comes down to a two-man showdown between them, they should decide to do whatever it takes to try to win Iowa. Winning Iowa is probably beyond McCain’s grasp, but is not yet out of reach to the political supernova that it is Rudy Giuliani, who has the ability yet to define himself to Iowa voters in 2007. If I could advise Mayor Giuliani one thing, it would be for him to essentially live in Iowa in 2007.

Gov. Romney needs to win Iowa. For New Hampshire is McCain country, and the libertarian minded voters of the Granite State will probably be more amenable to Mayor Giuliani than the Governor that has been on the forefront of the “Culture War” in the state just next door. 

For John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, stopping Gov. Romney in Iowa should be the #1 priority of 2007.